Archive for January 31, 2012

Today

  • Silver Prices Will Soar To Record Levels In 2012 – “Record Breaking” Demand For Silver Bullion
    Corrections are the norm in any long term bull market and silver is no exception.  The correction that began in May of 2011 and ended in December has set the stage for what will be an explosive move up during 2012 and beyond. Since hitting the 2011 low of $26.16 on December 29, 2011, silver [...]
  • World Bank Forecasts Global Recession … But Not in China
    The World Bank recently reduced its estimates for economic growth worldwide and in the euro zone, and the numbers are pretty dire, as they indicate the potential of a world recession on par with, or even worse than, the economic climate in 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. But China’s economy — while not [...]
  • ‘Currency Wars’ hotting up
    Gold and silver prices paused for breath yesterday following their price breakouts last week. Gold for April delivery at the New York Comex settled down 0.1% at $1,734.40 per troy ounce, while silver …
  • Technical Analysis for Energy Markets
    The commodity is trading between the middle and the lower band for Bollinger bands indicator,but attempting to the upside. Stochastic is approaching overbought area however it’s still positive and may help price stabilize above the middle band around 99.60. We expect some bullishness this morning for a possible retest of the aforementioned level and maybe further towards the main resistance for the descending channel colored in blue.

  • Technical Analysis for Precious Metals
    The metal returned to incline again, but without providing any consolidation above 88.6% Fibonacci correction of the CD leg of the suggested harmonic structure. This rebound doesn’t confirm that the upside move could continue, where the upside move requires consolidation above the mentioned correction at 1735.00 and also above the resistance at 1737.00. Therefore, we remain neutral today, observing the metal’s behavior around these levels.

  • The Long Term Bull Market E Wave Count
    I have to be honest that I am grappling with a few possible counts since the March 2009 Bull market commenced in terms of the big picture. With Elliott Wave Analysis, you have to anticipate, monitor, and then adjust. Most of the time I go with my instinct and then only adjust if it looks like I was way off the tracks.

  • Why Gold Is Shining Bright & What the Fed is Doing
    One of the things that I pride myself in as a person who trades and writes about financial markets in public is that I am always honest. If I blow a call I fess up and admit it. When I have made mistakes in the past, I always try to learn something new from them and I discuss losing trades publicly with readers and members of my service.

  • Bullion and Energy Market Commentary
    SPOT GOLD closed slightly lower due to light profit taking on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off December’s low. The midrange close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm. If it extends the rally off December’s low, the 62% retracement level of the SeptemberDecember decline crossing is the next upside target.

  • Commodity Report: Gold
    GOLD continues to consolidate after last weeks boost by the Fed Reserve which now sees gold firmly in the $1,700 territory. The range last night was $1,716 to $1,733. Gold opens the morning just below $1,730. As we had suspected gold held up much better than other commodities overnight as markets jitters surrounding Europe resurfaced. We took up our own advice to buy the metal on the dip to $1,720 overnight. This position now has a stop loss at entry and we will seek to trail this stop higher as the market continues take gold higher. We maintain our bullish bias in the short term and medium term for gold although we are currently reviewing our view on commodities in general. An escalation of the European debt crisis is increasingly likely and this will have a negative impact on commodities in general. However, even last year we saw both the USD and Gold manage to gain and expect that this trend will continue especially in the event of a meltdown in Europe

  • Daily Commodity Update: Cocoa
    Cocoa futures executed a downside breakout in Monday’s session to confirm the first sell signal of the recent strong rally. After gaining nearly $500 per metric ton during the last half of January, profit taking near the $2,500 level has completed a Rising Wedge chart pattern with the breach of support illustrated here by Autochartist.

  • America’s New “Stress” Dynamic
    The $132.9 billion festering sore… bank shutdowns… and unpatriotic cheapskate consumers: Tales of “post-recessionary” America. Plus:

    Recession be damned? Stunning new breakthroughs in preventing the onset of nearly every disease associated with aging… and a retrenchment in the U.S. energy patch that will mean even more oil.

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Today

  • The Real McCoy?
    Everyone is up in arms because, as I pen this column, gold has rallied above $1,700 … silver has jumped as high as $33.79 … and the broader stock markets have risen to the top of the resistance ceiling I’ve previously cited at the Dow Industrials 12,800 level. So my readers are now piling on [...]
  • Bullish indicators for palladium price
    According to the latest estimates from the consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), in 2012 automobile production will hit a new record high – the third year in a row such records have been …
  • Greek crisis close to climax
    Markets have been hit by another bout of selling this morning as Europe prepares for what could be a crunch week in terms of the continent’s debt crisis. As reported at The Telegraph, …
  • IMM Positioning – USD Longs Extended Further Before FOMC Announcement
    USD longs extended before FOMC meeting: The latest IMM data, which cover the week ending last Tuesday, show a further build-up in aggregate USD longs ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, reaching USD18.8bn. The unwinding of USD longs may thus explain the sharp USD sell-off in the wake of the surprisingly dovish statement. Short EUR positions also set a fresh record, and while some shorts are likely to have been washed out by the recent rise in EUR/USD, positioning likely still leaves directional risks to the upside.

  • There’s No Reason Gold Stocks Should Be So Cheap – Newmont Mining On The Bargain Rack
    Over the past five years, gold bullion has dramatically outperformed the average gold stock.  Reasons why bullion has outperformed gold stocks include an investor preference for physical gold and the inability of gold miners to produce earnings gains commensurate with the increase in the price of gold. The end result of investor aversion to gold [...]
  • Technical Analysis for Energy Markets
    Looking at the daily chart, the pair settles above point C and the 88.6% Fibonacci correction for the CD leg, both belongs to the harmonic butterfly pattern. Steady trading among those levels hints a sideways range especially that momentum indicators are downside biased, but the exponential moving averages remain positive. Accordingly, we will stay aside this week awaiting a breach of the range among 100.60 and 97.70, we advise you to follow our upcoming reports for more intraday analysis.

  • Technical Analysis for Precious Metals
    We recognize a double harmonic structure over the daily chart, where this structure contains the formation of a Bat harmonic pattern, which started at X1 point, and the formation of a Butterfly harmonic pattern that started at X2 point. Despite the fact that both patterns are not ideal, but we can see on the interval that this bullish structure was able to push the metal towards 88.6% Fibonacci correction of the CD leg at 1735.00, where this barrier could separate between testing the top of (C) point and retesting areas around 1711.40 as ADX didn’t confirm the end of the bullish wave despite the weakness seen on the indicator. Therefore, we remain neutral in our weekly report and recommend reviewing our next reports for more confirmations regarding the metal’s next move.

  • Bullion and Energy Market Commentary
    SPOT GOLD closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off December’s low. The highrange close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm. If it extends the rally off December’s low, the 62% retracement level of the SeptemberDecember decline crossing is the next upside target.

  • Gold and Forex Technical Update
    Gold: Gold is trading at 1733.80 levels. Gold has risen slowly over the weekend as weaker economic indicators like a rise in unemployment came out of the US and talks with Greece’s creditor’s neared deadline causing more nervousness helping the metal retain its shine. Even a positive out-come from Greece may not assure a meltdown in the precious metal as now even Portugal seems to be in news for need of a similar rescue op-eration. Look at Initiating shorts at good resistances. Outlook stays bearish: Look at shorts. Target 1600 again.

  • Commodity Report: Gold
    GOLD continues to consolidate and move higher after last weeks boost by the Fed Reserve which now sees gold firmly in the $1,700 territory. The range on Friday was $1,713 to $1,740 and it opens the morning near the top of this range. The USD continues to remain weak and whilst there are no other shocks to the financial system gold will continue on its merry way higher back towards its all time highs above $1,900. We continue to hear of central banks and semigovernment organisations diversifying into gold and the very firm bounce off critical support at $1,630 has us confirm our bullish bias on the metal in both the short and medium term. Certainly a retracement towards $1,700 is possible but it will be a temporary move as gold moves aggressively above resistance at $1,750 to target a test of $1,800. For today look for any dips towards $1,720 as an opportunity for those who would like to initiate new long positions. Resistance at $1,655 should hold for today.

  • Weekly Commodity Update: Gold
    Gold futures resumed their upward climb in last week’s trading, moving significantly above the $1,700 per ounce key level support. The overall chart analysis suggests the buyers are still in command of this market as the steady climb has yet to see any meaningful price retracement. While this bodes well for the longer term, Autochartist has detected a formidable resistance level at the $1,740 level which did manage to cap the week’s gains.

  • Daily Commodity Update: Corn
    A choppy and volatile month of January is drawing to a close on a slight bullish note for the grain futures markets. Led by strength in the corn futures, the broader complex turned higher in what appears to be an effort to cement the month’s sell-off as a long-term swing low. Corn pushed back above the $6.40 per bushel level to confirm the modest breakout spotted here by Autochartist.

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Today

  • FEDging the figures
    Both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are now offering limitless quantities of new money – the ECB to support the banks, and the Fed for reasons (despite explanations) that …
  • Can’t “Davos Man” Just Shut Up?
    When you’re in a hole, grab a shovel and keep digging… or something like that: Mr. Geithner’s firewall, and other conceits of “Davos Man” Plus… Debt ceiling grows to $16.394 trillion: Addison puts a time frame on the mother of all financial bubbles.
  • Jonathan Davis talks to Dominic Frisby about what makes a good investor
    Dominic Frisby, of the GoldMoney Foundation, interviews Jonathan Davis, of Independent Investor, about what makes a successful investor. They talk about Warren Buffet, Jim Rogers and John Templeton …

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